What is the probability of getting your desired talent after recalibrating your weapon?


Each weapon type has a set of possible talents that they can roll. For example, Steady (the talent that reduces scope sway) can only be rolled on a Marksman Rifle which means that we can eliminate it from the pool of possible talents for all of the other weapons. Going through this process yields the following possible talents for each weapon type.


Number Of Available Talents Per Weapon
AR LMG SMG MMR SG P
28 25 25 32 24 31

We will use the numbers for LMG/SMG (25) and MMR (32) since they will represent the group fairly well. For those who are strictly trying to recalibrate for that one perfect talent (such as Brutal) they will use the (1 Talent) column while others who are willing to accept 3 possible talents (such as Brutal, Responsive, and Deadly) will want to use the (3 Talents) column.



LMG/SMG Results:


If you are only willing to accept 1 perfect talent, then you have a 58.5% chance of getting the talent you wanted after 6 rerolls (and a LOT of Weapon Kits and Phoenix Credits). If you are willing to accept 3 possible talents, then your chances improve to a much more manageable 93.8%. Also notice that reroll #2 in the (3 Talents) column has a higher probability than reroll #6 in the (1 Talent) column. Don’t forget that resource costs for rerolling increase quickly as you do more attempts.



Reroll Attempts Cumulative Probability
(1 Talent)
Cumulative Probability
(3 Talents)
1 13.6% 37.1%
2 25.4% 60.4%
3 35.6% 75.1%
4 44.4% 84.3%
5 52.0% 90.1%
6 58.5% 93.8%

Marksman Rifle Results:


Similar trends exist here but your probabilities are lower overall since the number of possible talents in greater in Marksman Rifles (32) than LMGs/SMGs (25). Assault Rifles (28) will fall between the probabilities for these two data sets.



Reroll Attempts Cumulative Probability
(1 Talent)
Cumulative Probability
(3 Talents)
1 10.3% 28.8%
2 19.6% 49.4%
3 27.9% 64.0%
4 35.4% 74.4%
5 42.1% 81.8%
6 48.1% 87.0%

Conclusion


Getting the perfect talent on your weapon is possible but it will cost you a substantial amount of resources. After six weapon talent rerolls it is still essentially a coin toss as to whether you will have that perfect talent. If you can lower your standards or expectations just slightly then it becomes very likely that you could eventually arrive at a talent that fits your needs.



The Math Behind the Results


For LMG/SMG:


  • There are 25 possible talents that you can roll.
  • Your weapon has 2 talents and the third you will recalibrate.
  • This means that you will be rolling from a pool of 22 talents.
  • When you reroll your talents there are 4 possible selections, however the first option is always the talent you just attempted to reroll (in case you decide to keep it).
  • This gives 3 new talents rolled per recalibration.


Probabilities


If you are only willing to accept 1 perfect talent (such as Brutal):
  • option 1 is locked up as the original talent
  • option 2 is a probability of 1/22
  • option 3 is a probability of 1/21 (because it can’t be the same as option 2)
  • option 4 is a probability of 1/20 (because it can’t be the same as option 2 or option 3)


Sample calculation for cumulative probability of ONE reroll:


F=Cumulative Probability of Event NOT Occurring
S=Cumulative Probability of Event Occurring (This is what we want)
n=number of attempted rerolls

Formula
Formula

Sample Calculation for Cumulative Probability of MULTIPLE rerolls:



If you are willing to accept 3 possible talents (such as Brutal, Responsive, and Deadly).
  • option 1 is locked up as the original talent
  • option 2 is a probability of 3/22
  • option 3 is a probability of 3/21 (because it can’t be the same as option 2)
  • option 4 is a probability of 3/20 (because it can’t be the same as option 2 or option 3)


Sample calculation for cumulative probability of ONE reroll:


F=Cumulative Probability of Event NOT Occurring
S=Cumulative Probability of Event Occurring (This is what we want)
n=number of attempted rerolls

Formula
Formula

Sample Calculation for Cumulative Probability of MULTIPLE rerolls:


Formula




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